Increasing stock market volatility drags Bitcoin and altcoin prices lower

Increasing stock market volatility drags Bitcoin and altcoin prices lower
Increasing stock market volatility drags Bitcoin and altcoin prices lower

The cryptocurrency market faced another day of downward pressure as the unease in the traditional markets continues to spread following the recent interest rate spike on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView shows that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a low at $44,710 late on Feb. 25 before buying at the key support returned to help the digital asset recover back above $46,500 but generally, analysts are looking for $50,000 to become an established support before expecting bullish continuation.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Despite major BTC purchases by MicroStrategy, Tesla and MassMutual, a majority of institutional investors still have security and tax treatment concerns that prevent them from investing in Bitcoin, according to Galaxy Digital co-president Damien Vanderwilt.

Institutional investment has been a significant source of optimism in the cryptocurrency sector in 2021, but its influence in helping BTC reach a market cap of $1 trillion may be overstated as recent analysis shows that stablecoin whales and retail traders still hold the most buying power.

Interest rate increase puts pressure on GBTC

On Feb. 25, the interest rate for the 10-year U.S. Treasury spiked to 1.52%, its highest level in over a year.

According to Chad Steinglass, Head of Trading at CrossTower, the move led to market-wide pressure that pushed the “GBTC premium down as low as negative 6% and it closed around negative 2% today.” The analyst sees interest rate volatility as a major source of market volatility, as the long end of the curve steepens while the U.S. dollar is pushed lower.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Cryptocurrencies fell under increased pressures as equity markets deteriorated throughout the day, possibly due to a “scramble for liquidity” resulting from traders “pushing up against margin calls and needing to free up cash.”

Steinglass said:

“I interpret the GBTC premium collapse as a sign that either retail is dumping to free liquidity, or large fund holders like ARKW are seeing outflows, which causes them to sell GBTC along with everything else.”

Traditional markets are still choppy

The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back .0582 basis points to 1.46 on Feb. 26, marking a 3.82% decrease from its high on the previous day. This leadi to a choppy day in the markets which saw the major indices close mixed.

The NASDAQ finished the day up 0.56%, recovering some of its losses from the 3.5% drop on Feb. 25. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and DOW finished the day in the red, down 0.48% and 1.51% respectively.

A majority of the top cryptocurrencies also took on sharp losses on Friday, with the exception of Cardano (ADA), which became the third-ranked cryptocurrency by market cap after its price broke out to a new all-time high at $1.29. The current excitement for the altcoin appears to be connected to the upcoming ‘Mary’ mainnet launch scheduled for March 1.

ADA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Basic Attention Token (BAT) has also battled back against the market sell-off to post a 6.43% gain following the Feb. 23 announcement of the upcoming Brave Decentralized Exchange (DEX).

Ether (ETH) price is down 7.19%  and trading below $1,500, while Binance Coin (BNB) has dropped 8.36% to $224.14

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.533 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 61.3%.

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This article originally syndicated from Increasing stock market volatility drags Bitcoin and altcoin prices lower
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Alpha Finance Lab rallies after integrating with Compound and Binance Smart Chain

Alpha Finance Lab rallies after integrating with Compound and Binance Smart Chain
Alpha Finance Lab rallies after integrating with Compound and Binance Smart Chain

Alpha Finance Lab (ALPHA) experienced a price breakout on Feb. 25 as a series of significant partnerships has brought renewed interest in the cross-chain DeFi platform. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView shows that following the announcements, ALPHA price surged to $1.78 but Bitcoin’s recent struggle to hold $50,000 as support led to a sell-off among altcoins and ALPHA currently trades at $1.31.

ALPHA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

One of the reasons for the sudden surge was the Feb. 25 announcement of a partnership with Compound Finance (COMP) that will allow Compound users to integrate with Alpha Homora and lend assets across platforms.

Due to the deposit APY on Ether (ETH) being higher on Alpha Homora, Compound users are presented with an opportunity to yield farm by borrowing ETH against collateral in their accounts and lending it on the ALPHA protocol.

Users are lured by lower fees on Binance Smart Chain

Alpha has is also benefiting from its recent integration with the Binance Smart Chain, which has been growing in popularity for being a low-fee alternative to transacting on the Ethereum network.

The team at ALPHA hinted at what lies ahead for the protocol in the following tweet acknowledging the recent progress of the Binance Smart Chain:

Impressed with Binance Smart Chain (BSC)’s growth and traction.

Hope to join the party soon ;)@binance #BinanceSmartChain https://t.co/9NT7tkAs8q

— Alpha Finance Lab (@AlphaFinanceLab) February 20, 2021

Following the Feb. 1 launch of Alpha Homora v2, which included the release of a limited edition NFT, the protocol has continued to expand its reach and establish new integrations with partners in the blossoming decentralized finance ecosystem.

The project also received a renewed boost of optimism on Feb. 22 after an agreement was reached on the terms of how Alpha Finance would repay Cream Finance (CREAM) for funds lost during an exploit of Alpha’s “Iron Bank” on Feb. 13. This exploit involved a hacker draining $37 million from the protocol. 

Currently, Compound finance is the third-ranked DeFi protocol by total value locked (TVL) and the partnership between it and Alpha Finance could further Alpha’s growth and exposure to new users in the months ahead.

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Why is Bitcoin $86K in Nigeria? Here’s why the BTC premium is huge in some countries

Why is Bitcoin $86K in Nigeria? Here’s why the BTC premium is huge in some countries
Why is Bitcoin $86K in Nigeria? Here’s why the BTC premium is huge in some countries

Since the start of 2021, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been chasing new highs on a weekly and daily basis. On Feb. 21, BTC reached a new all-time high of $58,300. However, an interesting phenomenon is that even with many global cryptocurrency exchanges in existence, BTC’s price can still vary greatly depending on geography.

This raises an intriguing question: How can Bitcoin simultaneously trade at $53,047 in Malaysia, $49,727 in Singapore, $51,133 in India and over $86,000 in Nigeria? Is the reason simply a temporary imbalance between buyers and sellers, taxes, or regulations? Or is there something else at play?

As shown in the chart below, there really isn’t a set price for BTC, as nearly every country has its own digital asset valuation.

Bitcoin price premiums. Source: BitcoinPriceMap.com

At any given time, cryptocurrency prices will differ between countries, even after adjusting the currency rate. Indeed, some additional buying or selling pressure could create discrepancies, but that should not be continuous and steady.

What’s causing the huge BTC price discrepancies?

This phenomenon isn’t something new or exclusive to cryptocurrencies, however. Exxon Mobil stocks, for example, are traded in United States, Russian, Argentine, German, Mexican and Swizz markets.

While there may be different reasons for the friction, including bureaucracy and nation-specific laws, they’re basically the same asset. Nevertheless, their prices usually differ after adjusting for currency exchange rates.

Unlike stocks, however, transferring cryptocurrencies usually takes less than an hour, and it doesn’t depend on custodians and depositary receipt administrators. Therefore, bureaucracy can not be the reason for the big price differences for Bitcoin, which is borderless.

On the other hand, suppose one just bought BTC in the U.S. or Europe and is willing to sell it in Argentina to profit from the 6.5% difference. Even if there were no trading fees involved, the result would be the local currency, the Argentine peso.

Things get more complicated though, as one will need to convert this fiat money back to dollars or euros. There might be domestic restrictions, taxes or, even worse, a different currency rate for foreigners. Moreover, traditional currency remittances don’t take place on weekends and usually take one or two business days.

2020 index of economic freedom. Source: heritage.org

Not surprisingly, the countries with the highest BTC valuations consistently score low on investment and financial freedom global rankings. Barriers and taxes created by strict government controls translate into additional risks and costs for the fiat conversion and remittance. This all contributes to the premium seen versus the remaining countries.

Government action might create extreme situations

Extreme capital control situations such as the Central Bank of Nigeria recently shutting down all cryptocurrency-related bank accounts could be behind the current 70% premium versus global BTC markets. But Nigeria likely has the highest premium in the world because the country, in particular, is also the leader when it comes to Bitcoin adoption, based on the latest data. 

#Bitcoin Price is now $80,000 in Nigeria – a 60% premium.

That’s what happens when you try to ban something people want.

— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) February 18, 2021

Eventually, arbitrage traders will find a solution to bypass sanctions, and the price gap should tighten. But right now, there is no effective way to “profit” from the arbitrage.

For those wondering what would cause Bitcoin to trade below most liquid markets such as the U.S., there is no definitive answer. It is most likely some regulatory hurdle for depositing fiat money on local exchanges, thus creating an imbalance favoring the sell-side.

The negative premium is less common, however, and stablecoins could be used to mitigate this effect. Meanwhile, when a hefty premium is seen in local fiat currency, it does not justify a similar price gap for dollar-denominated stablecoin trading.

Thus, such differences in pricing across various countries represent the risks, red tape, taxes and inefficiencies of converting fiat between currencies and sending fiat money across borders.

author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price ‘macro top’? Not so fast — data shows the real FOMO isn’t even here

Bitcoin price ‘macro top’? Not so fast — data shows the real FOMO isn’t even here
Bitcoin price ‘macro top’? Not so fast — data shows the real FOMO isn’t even here

Bitcoin (BTC) bears thinking that $58,000 was this cycle’s top will be sorely disappointed, fresh investment data from past bull markets shows.

Compiled by on-chain analytics resource Whalemap, statistics covering BTC buys of between $5 million and $7 million conclude that even at recent all-time highs, Bitcoin was far from a “macro top.”

“No FOMO in sight” for BTC

During the 2017 and shorter 2019 bull market, Bitcoin saw mass buy-ins of a similar size — $5-7 million. 

When investments of that amount hit a peak, price action began to reverse, signalling the start of consolidation or a heavier retracement. 

According to Whalemap, cash injections in that area have been far from their previous peaks this year, indicating that the current correction will likely be temporary and on par with BTC’s typical corrections during a bull run.

“Previous macro tops have occurred when thousands of transactions worth 5 to 7 million dollars each were flooding the blockchain. True FOMO,” researchers tweeted on Feb. 25.

“Currently, no such FOMO in sight for BTC.”

Bitcoin $5-7 million transaction volume vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Whalemap/ Twitter

The expectation of further buy-ins supports existing data that came to light this week, notably from Coinbase Pro, which has seen multiple tranches of over 10,000 BTC leave its books for private or custody wallets.

The first negative premium on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) since early 2017 may also point to the conclusion that the 2021 bull cycle still has a lot more room to run.

“Another significant Coinbase outflows at 48k. US institutional investors are still buying $BTC,” Ki Young Ju, CEO of fellow monitoring resource CryptoQuant, tweeted on Friday.

“I think the major reason for this drop is the jittering macro environment like the 10-year Treasury note, not whale deposits, miner selling, and lack of institutional demand.”

Liquidity grab?

The start of the turnaround maybe sooner than many think. In his latest analysis, pseudonymous cryptocurrency trader Rekt Capital eyed the 4-hour BTC/USD chart for proof of a turnaround.

“Pulls back but still holds the wick-to-wick Higher Low. Turn $46720 in to support (black) and BTC will move higher. Strong bullish divergences on the 4HR are appearing as well,” he commented alongside an annotated screenshot of the chart.

BTC/USD 4-hour candle chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

Speaking to Cointelegraph, the Whalemap team noted that short-term the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) — which tracks overall market profit and loss — was indicating that a deeper sell-off is off the cards, at least for now.

“Hourly SOPR shows potential for at least a short term bounce,” they said.

BTC/USD SOPR chart. Source: Whalemap

Friday further sees a major expiry event on Bitcoin options, something which has dictated temporary downward pressure on BTC in the past. 

The day’s low of $44,150, some say, was merely an attempt to suck up liquidity before the next leg higher.

“Yes, market dumped after ‘mega-whales’ sold into the rally (as warned), but since then, they have been buying dips!” the creator of exchange orderbook data analysis service Material Indicators observed.

“With stonks uncertainty, I don’t know how many more dips there will be, but they’re being bought!”

That “uncertainty” is being exacerbated by concerning trends in bond yields, Cointelegraph reported this week, with behavior seen as similar to before the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

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This article originally syndicated from Bitcoin price ‘macro top’? Not so fast — data shows the real FOMO isn’t even here
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Bitcoin price nears $44K as large Coinbase outflows fail to stop the sell-off

Bitcoin price nears $44K as large Coinbase outflows fail to stop the sell-off
Bitcoin price nears $44K as large Coinbase outflows fail to stop the sell-off

Bitcoin (BTC) hit fresh local lows on Feb. 26 despite what appear to be ongoing largescal institutional buy-ins.

New lows despite bullish signs

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView showed BTC/USD $44,150 during Friday trading — last seen two weeks ago — after a rebound to $50,000 fizzled overnight.

Bitcoin had seen good news in the form of asset manager Stone Ridge planning to become the first Bitcoin mutual fund, along with major corporate purchases from MicroStrategy and Square. These, however, failed to stem the bearish mood, with 24-hour losses standing at near 10% at the time of writing.

“Everyone wants 42k, so we probably just go up now or drop to 38k on a savage wick. Crowd rarely gets what it wants,” popular trader Scott Melker summarized on Twitter.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe had prevously forecast ultimate support lying at around $38,000 should Bitcoin not find buying volume at higher levels.

“Bitcoin doesn’t look too great for a bull continuation coming period,” he said on Thursday.

“Still, retest at $54,000-55,000 could happen, but I’m cautious when we get there. If we lose $47,000, then I’m looking at $42,000-44,000 and $37,000-38,500 next. That should be the low.”

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart. Source: Tradingview

Institutions are still buying: data

Data from the professional trading arm of U.S. exchange Coinbase meanwhile showed another major tranch of BTC leaving its books for a private or custody wallet — something which traditionally suggests institutional buying.

The latest spike of 12,100 BTC is the second this week, such large volumes themselves being a rarity, a fresh chart from on-chain monitoring resource CryptoQuant confirms.

Coinbase Pro outflow annotated chart. Source: Lex Moskovski/ CryptoQuant

The so-called “Coinbase premium,” the difference in price between Coinbase and Binance, flipped to negative for several brief moments as Bitcoin dropped to nearly $44,200. 

Coinbase premium vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: CryptoQuant/ Tradingview

As Cointelegraph reported citing CryptoQuant, whales appear to favor buying at current price levels, with the result that a dip much below $44,000 would be “unlikely,” according to CEO Ki Young Ju.

On Thursday, Ki described the last Coinbase Pro spike, which occurred at $48,000, as “the strongest bullish signal” he had yet seen in Bitcoin.

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6M noobs have bought coins on Robinhood Crypto already in 2021

6M noobs have bought coins on Robinhood Crypto already in 2021
6M noobs have bought coins on Robinhood Crypto already in 2021

Retail-focused trading app Robinhood has revealed the number of new monthly customers buying from its crypto platform this year is 15 times the 2020 average.

According to the company’s new report, “Crypto Goes Mainstream,”more than three million new users purchased from Robinhood Crypto in January, with more than 2.9 million new users having bought crypto during February so far. As such, Robinhood Crypto’s user base has expanded by 6 million in 2021 so far.

By contrast, the platform revealed the largest number of new users transacting on Robinhood Crypto last year was 401,000 in July — when trade activity surged in the lead-up to Bitcoin’s third block reward halving.

The average number of monthly new crypto traders on Robinhood was roughly 200,000 last year. The report also notes an average transaction size of roughly $500 on the platform, an 100% increase when compared to the first three quarters of 2020. The report concluded:

“The numbers are clear: 2021 has started with a crypto bang.”

Robinhood is looking to further expand its crypto services, revealing plans to offer deposits and withdrawals for crypto assets in a Tweet last week.

This year has been an explosive one for Robinhood, with the platform finding itself at the center of controversy after suspending trade in both Dogecoin and stocks that were being pumped by the now infamous Reddit group, r/WallStreetBets, during January.

Last week’s congressional hearings on the incident saw representatives of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee scrutinize Robinhood’s business model — with the platform’s move to suspend trading in GME shares apparently prompted by the platform falling short of its collateral requirements by $3 billion amid the orchestrated pump.

However, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has blamed its collateralization issues with U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission regulations mandating a two-day settlement period after trades are executed.

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Exchange listings and NFT boom back Enjin’s (ENJ) 52% rally to a new high

Exchange listings and NFT boom back Enjin’s (ENJ) 52% rally to a new high
Exchange listings and NFT boom back Enjin’s (ENJ) 52% rally to a new high

Nonfungible tokens (NFTs) are rapidly becoming a focal point of the cryptocurrency market, as evidenced by stories of millions of dollars being raised in minutes for one-of-a-kind tokenized art pieces and rare collectibles that traders rush to get their hands on. 

One project that has been benefiting greatly from the resurgence of NFTs is Enjin Coin (ENJ), which broke out to a new all-time high of $0.67 on Feb. 25 following its listing on the Crypto.com exchange as well as the launch of spot and perpetual futures trading on FTX.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView shows that ENJ rose 52% from a low of $0.438 on Feb. 24 to a new high of $0.67 before experiencing a pullback to its current price of $0.611.

ENJ/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

A scroll through the project’s Twitter feed details numerous recent partnerships and integrations that have helped fuel Enjin Coin’s price rise.

Minecraft is one of the most notable integrations for the Enjin ecosystem, and users are able to earn special NFTs that unlock secret games inside the video game series.

The platform has also benefited from joining forces with the growing ecosystem of the Binance Smart Chain (BSC), which has launched an NFT educational campaign that Enjin will be part of.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for ENJ on Feb. 24, several hours before today’s price rise.

The VORTECS™ score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of the historic and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. ENJ price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen on the chart above, the VORTECS™ score for ENJ reached a high of 70 on Feb. 24, shortly before the price began to spike to a new all-time high on Feb. 25.

The growing popularity of the NFT space, along with numerous big-name partnerships has Enjin well-positioned as the current bull market cycle progresses into 2021.

Its recent integration with BSC provides a way to escape high fees on the Ethereum network and could bring a new wave of activity to the Enjin ecosystem.

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Soaring Treasury yields are worrying economists — But what does this mean for Bitcoin?

Soaring Treasury yields are worrying economists — But what does this mean for Bitcoin?
Soaring Treasury yields are worrying economists — But what does this mean for Bitcoin?

This week’s correction in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) showed that a market doesn’t go up in a straight line. Meanwhile, another topic has been gaining attention, namely the big rise in the 10-year yields of United States government bonds. 

In recent weeks, the 10-year Treasury yield of U.S. government bonds has surged 35% to a new high of 1.44%, the highest point since the cross-asset crash in March 2020.

Treasury yield bounces from a 60-year low

U.S. 10-year yield 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView

The 10-year Treasury yield has been accelerating massively in recent weeks, similar to the run-up to the economic downturns in 2000 and 2008. Hence, rising yields are typically considered a signal of weakness for the economy and can have a big impact across many markets.

As the yields increase, governments must pay more for their underlying government bonds. This combined with the current economic conditions of the post-COVID-19 era and record national debt are factors that are unsurprisingly worrying economists. 

However, looking at the chart above from a technical perspective, this entire run can still be considered as a simple bearish retest of the previous support level.

Such an example is shown by the previous attempt to test the resistance above. This could be happening here as well, where the rates will then drop back down from the 1.53% level. But it is important to keep an eye on this level because breaking through it can have a major impact on the markets.

The government bond yields also have an impact on mortgage markets. Given that the real estate market is massively overheated at the moment, with people taking on massive debt to purchase homes, an increase in interest rates could pop this entire bubble, similar to what happened in 2008.

However, yields also impact other markets, as gold often reacts to these moves as well. But is this time different? And how will Bitcoin respond to these potential macroeconomic shocks?

weakening dollar vs. Bitcoin

U.S. dollar currency index 3-day chart. Source: TradingView

The U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) index continues to show weakness as yields are rising, which is generally good news for Bitcoin bulls. This suggests that investors are fleeing the dollar toward higher risk, higher reward investments, such as Bitcoin.

However, from a technical perspective, the DXY saw a bearish retest at 91.50 points, followed by more downside for the dollar, as seen in the chart above. Now, a retest of the 90 points level is underway, with the primary question being whether this level will hold as support.

BTC/USD vs. DXY. Source: TradingView

Nevertheless, it’s debatable whether the rise in yields is having any direct effect on the price of Bitcoin, particularly in recent days. Meanwhile, the DXY has often been inversely correlated with the price of Bitcoin, though this has been decreasing in recent months (see below).

BTC rolling 90-day correlation vs. USD, VIX, Gold and S&P 500. Source: Digital Assets Data

After the crash in March 2020, this inverse relationship grew stronger until September 2020, as a weakening dollar was accompanied by a major increase in BTC price.

Of course, assets are only correlated until they aren’t, and many other factors can have a much bigger impact on BTC in the short term — for example, miners or whales selling Bitcoin, government regulations, etc. 

Why is gold showing weakness?

Gold 3-day chart. Source: TradingView

The 3-day chart for gold’s price shows a clear-cut correction since August 2020. More importantly, the increase in yields and the weaker dollar have not impacted the gold market as much as Bitcoin’s market.

Even with the recent surge in yields, people are not buying gold. In fact, an increase in yields has historically not benefitted gold — at least not in the short term — because higher yields would make government bonds more attractive for funds to hold for settlement and as a risk-off asset in their portfolios.

When yields continue rising toward higher levels, however, the uncertainty surrounding the economy also increases, and investors typically begin to shift from the dollar to gold as a safe haven. This was seen in the 1980s when yields ran toward 14% and gold also spiked to new all-time highs.

BTC has become increasingly important in macroeconomics

In the current state, however, falling gold prices may simply be an immediate reaction to the increase in yields in general. However, another possibility is that an increasing number of investors are opting for “digital gold” instead of the precious metal, not only because of the higher upside potential — i.e., risk-reward — but also because these positions can be liquidated much easier.

But another possibility is that an increasing number of investors are preferring “digital gold” to the precious metal — not only because of the higher upside potential but also because these positions can be liquidated much easier on digital trading platforms.

11 August 2020, dotted blue line, US corporations led by $MSTR begin buying #bitcoin as a treasury asset. pic.twitter.com/LEMNzwqQru

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) February 25, 2021

Today, the market capitalization of Bitcoin is still only 7% to 10% of gold’s, which highlights this massive upside potential.

Therefore, the macro conclusion that can be drawn is that the markets are becoming increasingly uncertain about the economy’s and the dollar’s future, as exemplified by the rising 10-year Treasury yields. However, it’s still too early to write off the recent correction in BTC price to this macroeconomic development, as multiple other variables are at play.

Ultimately, the rising yields and a weakening dollar are exciting developments to keep an eye on moving forward. With Bitcoin becoming an increasingly important player in the macroeconomic environment, strategists at JPMorgan Chase, for example, believe BTC may continue to eat away at gold’s market share. This will likely result in an even higher valuation for Bitcoin, particularly in the event of another economic crisis at the expense of gold.

In December 2020, JPMorgan strategists noted:

“The adoption of bitcoin by institutional investors has only begun, while for gold, its adoption by institutional investors is very advanced. If this medium to longer-term thesis proves right, the price of gold would suffer from a structural headwind over the coming years.”

author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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13,000 Bitcoins Withdrawn from Coinbase: Institutional Investors Still Buying at $48K?

13,000 Bitcoins Withdrawn from Coinbase: Institutional Investors Still Buying at $48K?
13,000 Bitcoins Withdrawn from Coinbase: Institutional Investors Still Buying at $48K?

While the BTC price continues to struggle slightly above the $50,000 mark, on-chain data revealed that over 13,000 bitcoins had been moved out from Coinbase to custody wallets. CryptoQuant’s CEO believes that these withdrawals went towards institutional investors, and he categorized it as the “strongest bullish signal.”

Bullish Developments on the BTC Horizen?

BTC’s price has suffered in the past several days after the asset peaked above $58,400 for a new all-time high record. However, the bears were looming, waited for their opportunity, and plummeted the cryptocurrency to a low beneath $45,000.

Despite bouncing off somewhat rapidly following this $13,000 nosedive, bitcoin is still more than 10% down from its latest price peak. However, data provided by the monitoring company CryptoQuant suggests a more favorable short-term future for the primary cryptocurrency.

The firm’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, took it to Twitter to exemplify a substantial withdrawal from the largest US crypto exchange – Coinbase. Earlier today, nearly 13,400 bitcoins were withdrawn to “multiple Coinbase custody wallets.”

Bitcoin Withdrawn From Coinbase. Source: CryptoQuant

Consequently, he concluded that this sizeable amount worth approximately $650 million has ended up on wallets linked to US institutional investors. According to Young Ju, such investors have continued allocating funds in BTC even after the cryptocurrency lost nearly 20% of its value in a matter of days.

As institutions don’t seem deterred from buying the dip, Young Ju classified it as the “strongest bullish signal I’ve ever seen.” Keeping in mind that corporations such as Square and MicroStrategy also doubled-down on their belief in BTC with considerable allocations, the asset could indeed be heading for a sharp price recovery.

The Role of Coinbase Withdrawals for BTC’s Price

Apart from buying shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), Coinbase is among the most preferred channels for US-based corporations and institutions to buy bitcoin. After all, the exchange facilitated at least one of MicroStrategy’s massive purchases.

Consequently, Young Ju has repeatedly outlined the vital role of large Coinbase withdrawals to custody wallets on BTC’s price. For instance, CryptoPotato reported another similar development in which 15,000 bitcoins were transferred out of the exchange in one day on February 3rd.

Upon the time of the withdrawals, bitcoin traded below $33,000. However, the cryptocurrency skyrocketed in value in the following days and less than a week later neared $50,000 for a new price record.

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What Bitcoin price levels will invalidate the short-term bearish scenario?

What Bitcoin price levels will invalidate the short-term bearish scenario?
What Bitcoin price levels will invalidate the short-term bearish scenario?

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is continuing to range between $48,000 and $51,000, unable to break out of the $51,600 resistance level.

If Bitcoin struggles to surpass the $51,600 resistance area in the near term, technical analysts say the probability of a correction rises.

BTC/USDT 4-hour price chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

$51,600 is the key level to watch

According to Josh Olszewicz, a cryptocurrency trader and technical analyst, the $51,600 level is currently acting as a strong resistance level.

For Bitcoin to retest the all-time high at $58,000 and initiate a potential rally towards $62,000, it needs to cleanly move past $51,600, he explained. 

Hence, a rally beyond $51,600 is the clear invalidation point for any short-term bearish scenario for Bitcoin.

The failure to break out in the near term could result in a bearish test of lower support areas, found at around $42,000. He said:

“If 4h breaks down, be prepared for some uber bearish calls to start popping at 36.7k meanwhile, I’ll be bidding the daily Kijun at 42k. Alternatively, if $BTC breaks above 4h Cloud at 51.6k, I like ATH retest at 58k, R3 yearly pivot test at 62k, macro PF diag test at 70k, R4 yearly pivot test at 80K. Seasonality suggests we go neutral/sideways through March and then reach for those higher targets in Q2.”

The $42,000 support area is a key level because it marks the top of the previous rally. On Jan. 8, the price of Bitcoin peaked at $42,085 on Binance, seeing a steep correction afterwards.

Bitcoin dropping to $42,000 to retest the previous top as a support area would not be necessarily bearish beyond the short term, however. 

Whale clusters show similar levels of support

Moreover, analysts at Whalemap noted large inflows to whale wallets at $48,500 and $46,500, which they say should provide BTC with some support. 

“The current situation looks similar to the one we had at 29K,” they explained. What’s more, the $46,532 level may now be “the new $29,000,” which held as support during the previous correction in January before the rally continued. They added: 

The $55,400 is an important level to keep an eye on as well. Getting back above it will be a good sign

Whale cluster levels. Source: Twitter/@whale_map

The most compelling argument for a short-term Bitcoin drop

Bitcoin tends to seek liquidity after a prolonged consolidation, which means it can drop down to fill buy orders at lower support areas that can ultimately fuel a new rally.

A pseudonymous trader known as “Salsa Tekila” echoed this sentiment. He said that there is a big support area at $41,000, followed by resistance at $54,000. He wrote:

“My current take on $BTC mid term: 1) Support around $41K. 2) Resistance around $54K. Depending on context, I might trigger swings around those two vicinities. Likely just scalp until then, unless major events come to fruition.”

Bitcoin tested the $44,800 support level in the past 72 hours, but it was not enough to propel BTC above $51,600.

This trend could cause the price of Bitcoin to drop back to the $44,800 level or to a lower support level, at $42,000.

The ideal scenario would be for Bitcoin to hold onto the $44,800 support area if it drops again, stabilize it as a macro support level, and move back up.

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Traders remain bullish even as DeFi’s TVL falls to $54.4 billion

Traders remain bullish even as DeFi’s TVL falls to $54.4 billion
Traders remain bullish even as DeFi’s TVL falls to $54.4 billion

Decentralized finance and the numerous platforms offering investment services have been the talk of the cryptocurrency sector for several months, and this has resulted in investors capturing spectacular gains for some of the top DeFi tokens like Uniswap’s UNI and AAVE. 

The fast-moving prices and 1,000% annual percentage yield on staked tokens elicited cheers from investors when the market was going up, but the recent selling pressure seen as Bitcoin’s (BTC) price dropped below $45,000 shows that the highest fliers are often the quickest to fall as traders rush to exit their positions and lock in their gains.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

On Feb. 22, Bitcoin’s price entered a sharp corrective phase that saw the top digital asset pull back by more than 20% from its all-time high of $58,274. As this occurred, the majority of altcoins also saw double-digit corrections, and DeFi tokens like PancakeSwap’s CAKE fell as much as 55%. 

Total value locked in DeFi shows resilience

The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi platforms also took a hit as Bitcoin and altcoins corrected. Data from DeFi Llama shows the combined TVL of all DeFi platforms fell from $64.89 billion to $54.22 billion on Feb. 24. Cointelegraph also reported that this week’s correction led to the second-largest day of DeFi loan liquidations in history. 

Total value locked in DeFi. Source: DeFi Llama

The decline in TVL is a result of decreasing token values rather than protocol outflows, indicating that tokenholders remain committed to the continued expansion of decentralized finance and that the current yields are still incentivizing investors to remain engaged.

Market analysis indicates that despite the recent $5.8-billion Bitcoin and altcoin liquidation, bulls remain optimistic and see this price pullback as a sign of a healthy market.

The same goes for the DeFi sector, which has been in a strong uptrend since the start of the year. Increasing DEX volume and as a rising TVL show that DeFi is still in the early stages of growth, and while pullbacks are to be expected, the overall trend is positive as institutional and retail investors increasingly gain exposure to this emerging asset class.

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Sam Bankman-Fried: The crypto whale who wants to give billions away

Sam Bankman-Fried: The crypto whale who wants to give billions away
Sam Bankman-Fried: The crypto whale who wants to give billions away

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3 reasons Bitcoin price is quickly recovering from its ‘severe’ 23% correction

3 reasons Bitcoin price is quickly recovering from its ‘severe’ 23% correction
3 reasons Bitcoin price is quickly recovering from its ‘severe’ 23% correction

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) quickly recovered from around $44,800 to over $50,000 within merely 22 hours. 

Behind the rapid recovery are three major factors, including low funding rates, Square’s $170 million Bitcoin purchase, and the spot market stabilizing.

Bitcoin futures funding rates substantially drop

Across major futures exchanges, including Binance, Bybit and Bitfinex, the funding rate of Bitcoin has dropped to 0.01%.

The Bitcoin futures funding rate was consistently above 0.1% throughout the entirety of the rally from the $40,000s to $58,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour price chart (Binance). Source: TradingView.com

When the futures funding rate is high, it means the market is overcrowded with buyers and the rally likely overextended.

This creates a major risk of a long squeeze, which can cause the price of Bitcoin to drop quickly in a short period.

With the funding rate back to 0.01%, the risk of a long squeeze is significantly lower and if a new uptrend ensues, the rally could be more sustainable.

BTC and ETH funding rates. Source: Bybt.com

Square buys $170 million worth of BTC

On Feb. 24, the U.S. payments giant Square bought $170 million worth of Bitcoin. This comes after purchasing $50 million worth of Bitcoin on Oct. 8 of last year. At the time, Square’s chief financial officer Amrita Ahuja said:

“We believe that bitcoin has the potential to be a more ubiquitous currency in the future. As it grows in adoption, we intend to learn and participate in a disciplined way. For a company that is building products based on a more inclusive future, this investment is a step on that journey.”

The additional purchase of Bitcoin by Square carries a significant meaning because it shows that the company is confident in BTC over the long term.

The price of Bitcoin is substantially higher than where it was in August of last year, which indicates that as its price rises, the confidence from institutions also increases.

Spot market is stabilizing

When the price of Bitcoin was correcting, the price of Bitcoin on spot exchanges, like Coinbase, was much lower than futures exchanges

On Feb. 23, for instance, Bitcoin was trading $600 lower on Coinbase at one point when the price was near $44,800.

When the price of Bitcoin initially recovered from $44,800 to $48,000, there were signs of a bearish retest.

John Cho, the director of global expansion at GroundX, said:

“We were expecting it, but didn’t think it’d come this soon or this fast. A solid bounce from here would be ideal; but some potential retracement support regions I’m watching. My bias is towards the 40-41k region as it would fulfill a 30% correction from ATH.”

Bitcoin price has recovered above $50,000 since, and that could have reduced the likelihood of a bearish retest and the potential for more downside.

In the near term, if Bitcoin continues to remain above $50,600, which has turned into a support area, the probability of a rally toward the next resistance level at $56,000 rises.

Lastly, such corrections are quite normal for a Bitcoin bull market cycle, as Cointelegraph previously pointed out. In fact, they were commonplace during the 2017 bull market, which had nine major pullbacks between 20–40%. But despite these reoccurring “severe” corrections, the price of Bitcoin still increased by 20 times from its previous all-time high during that year.

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